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Record W4286490072 · doi:10.1101/2022.07.20.500759

Climate change in the Arctic: testing the poleward expansion of ticks and tick-borne diseases

2022· preprint· en· W4286490072 on OpenAlexfundno aff
Karen D. McCoy, Céline Toty, Marlène Dupraz, J Tornos, Amandine Gamble, Romain Garnier, Sébastien Descamps, Thierry Boulinier

Bibliographic record

VenuebioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2022
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldImmunology and Microbiology
TopicVector-borne infectious diseases
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaInstitut Polaire Français Paul Emile VictorAgence Nationale de la Recherche
KeywordsSeabirdTickBiologyPopulationEcologyZoologyLyme diseaseIxodes

Abstract

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Abstract Climate change is most strongly felt in the polar regions of the world, with significant impacts for the species that live in these extreme environments. The arrival of parasites and pathogens from more temperate areas may become a significant problem for these populations, but current observations of parasite presence often lack a historical reference of prior absence. Observations in the high Arctic of the seabird tick Ixodes uriae suggested that this species recently expanded its range poleward. As this tick can have a direct impact on the breeding success of its seabird hosts and is vector of many potential disease agents, including Lyme disease spirochaetes, its presence and origin are important elements for predicting its impact on polar seabird populations. Here, we use population genetic data and host serology to test the hypothesis that Ixodes uriae has recently expanded into the Svalbard archipelago. Both Black-legged kittiwakes ( Rissa tridactyla ) and Thick-billed murres ( Uria lomvia ) were captured in Kongsfjorden, Spitsbergen and sampled for ticks and blood. Collected ticks were genotyped using microsatellite markers and population genetic analyses were carried out using data from 14 additional seabird colonies distributed across the tick’s northern distribution. In contrast to predictions based on a recent expansion, the Spitsbergen population showed high genetic diversity and significant differentiation from the more southern populations, suggesting long-term population isolation. Host serology also demonstrated a high exposure rate to Lyme disease spirochaetes (Bbsl). Targeted PCR on tick DNA extracts and sequencing identified the presence of Borrelia garinii in a Spitsbergen tick, confirming seabird exposure and demonstrating the presence of Lyme disease bacteria in the high Arctic for the first time. Taken together, results contradict the notion that Ixodes uriae has recently expanded into the high Arctic region. Rather, this tick has likely been present for some time, maintaining relatively high population sizes and an endemic transmission cycle of Bbsl spirochaetes. Close future observations of population infestation/infection rates will now be necessary to relate epidemiological changes to ongoing climate modifications. Author summary The climate in the Arctic is rapidly changing, and with it, the flora and fauna that live there. These new environmental conditions can favor the establishment of invasive species, including novel parasites and pathogens. Here, we use population genetic data and host serology to examine whether recent observations of ticks infesting breeding seabirds in the high Arctic represent a poleward expansion of the parasite. Contrary to predictions, tick populations showed no evidence of a recent colonization of the region. Ticks have likely be present for a relatively long time, maintaining high local diversity despite harsh environmental conditions and vectoring infectious agents among breeding birds. Indeed, we demonstrate the presence of Lyme disease spirochaetes in the high Arctic for the first time, with bacterial DNA found in one of the sampled ticks and seabird serology demonstrating high exposure to this pathogen. This Lyme disease agent has therefore likely been established in the region and circulating at low frequency between seabirds and ticks for some time.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.010
Threshold uncertainty score0.019

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.023
GPT teacher head0.240
Teacher spread0.216 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2022
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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