On the Linearity of External Forcing Response in Solar Geoengineering Experiments
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract As an idealized proxy for solar geoengineering, the GeoMIP G1 experiment forces Earth System Models with prescribed reductions in solar radiation to balance increases in atmospheric CO 2 . One key source of uncertainty is the magnitude of solar constant reduction required to offset a CO 2 quadrupling. Here, we employ single‐forcing simulations with Community Earth System Model to decompose the distinct radiative adjustments associated with solar and CO 2 forcing in the G1 experiment. We find that radiative adjustments to both single forcings have a net positive effect on top of atmosphere energy balance such that they both increase the net G1 forcing. Stratospheric temperature and shortwave cloud adjustments are the main sources of positive adjustment in both Solar and CO 2 simulations. We also show that net radiative adjustment in G1 cannot be represented linearly with CO 2 and solar forcing adjustments, which is primarily traced to reductions in boundary layer clouds.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it