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Record W4288639280 · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1901.03698

Report for the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls\n Project

2019· preprint· W4288639280 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier

Bibliographic record

VenuearXiv (Cornell University) · 2019
Typepreprint
Language
FieldEngineering
TopicReservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsOptimism biasScheduleContext (archaeology)CommissionInvestment (military)HydroelectricityBusinessFinanceOptimismEngineeringEconomicsPolitical scienceManagementGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This report was commissioned by the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the\nMuskrat Falls Project to provide the national and international context in\nwhich the Muskrat Falls Project took place. The Commission asked for the report\nto cover three specific topics of questions: (1) What is the national and\ninternational context of the Muskrat Falls Project with regards to cost overrun\nand schedule overrun? (What are the typical cost and schedule overruns of\nhydro-electric dam projects? How do hydro-electric dams compare to other\ncapital investment projects? How do Canadian projects compare to other\ncountries?), (2) What are the causes and root causes of cost and schedule\noverruns? (3) What are recommendations, based on international experience and\nresearch into capital investment projects, to prevent cost and schedule\noverruns in hydro-electric dam projects and other capital investment projects?\n Keywords: Hydroelectric Dams, Megaprojects, Cost Overrun, Schedule Overrun,\nOptimism Bias, Strategic Misrepresentation, Infrastructure, Capital Investment\nProjects, Canada, Muskrat Falls\n

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.723
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0030.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0020.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.177
GPT teacher head0.273
Teacher spread0.095 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2019
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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