Overblown? Analyzing Wind Speed in the Hurricane Warning Response System
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The role of wind speed in determining the impacts of hurricanes is examined via statistical analysis of Cate- gory 2-5 hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. Atlantic basin coastline, including Puerto Rico’s coast, from 1970-2020. The results indicate a positive yet statistically insignificant correlation between wind speed and hurricane deaths, cost of damages and federally obligated recovery aid. Other factors, such as storm surge, rainfall, and inland inundation, may be more strongly correlated with these impacts. The results are contextualized by a wealth of literature pointing to the role of social, political, and economic factors in determining the destructiveness of hurricanes. Finally, alternative indices to the popular Saffir-Simpson hurricane hazard scale – which relies on wind speed – are examined. As climate change advances and hurricanes become in- creasingly frequent and severe, more comprehensive hazard-rating scales may provide the basis for a more effective warning-response system, ultimately bolstering the resilience of coastal areas.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.024 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.009 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".