Bibliographic record
Abstract
We quantify changes in break‐up events of landfast ice in the transition from a perennial to a seasonal sea ice cover in the Arctic. A break‐up event is defined as a time when coastal sea ice concentration drops below 95% after a minimum period of 10 days of stable ice conditions. To this end we analyze output diagnostics from the Community Earth System Model (Version 1) – Large Ensemble from 1920 to 2080, focusing on six coastal communities of Alaska, Chukotka, and the Kamtchatka Peninsula: Utqiaġvik, Point Hope, Gambell, Novoye Chaplino, Sireniki, and Pakhachi. Model results generally agree with the satellite record with open water formation along the coastline associated with sustained offshore winds, although the sensitivity of CESM1‐LE is higher than that of observations due to the absence of a landfast ice parameterization in CESM1‐ LE. Specifically, we see a linear relationship between the magnitude of the opening and offshore surface wind stresses integrated over the 10 days prior to the opening event, (p‐value < 0.01). While the break‐up event frequency increases (5.53 × 10−5 events/day/year for Utqiagvik) in the 21st century due to the thin- ning, or weakening, of the landfast ice cover, the total number of winter break‐up events decreases due to a shortening of the winter season (mean of ‐5.3 days/decade).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".