Pooled efficacy results of estetrol/drospirenone combined oral contraception phase 3 trials
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate overall and subgroup efficacy of an estetrol (E4) 15 mg drospirenone (DRSP) 3 mg oral contraceptive in a 24/4-day regimen. STUDY DESIGN: We pooled efficacy outcomes from 2 pivotal phase 3 contraceptive trials with E4/DRSP conducted in the United States/Canada and Europe/Russia. We assessed Pearl Index (PI; pregnancies per 100 participant-years) and 13-cycle life-table pregnancy rates in at-risk cycles (confirmed intercourse and no other contraceptive use) among participants 16 to 35 years. We calculated PI by age and further subcategorization (contraceptive history and body mass index [BMI]). We performed multivariable analysis using Cox regression to assess impact of potential confounding factors. RESULTS: of 1.14 (0.64-1.88), 2.19 (1.05-4.03), and 2.27 (0.83-4.94), respectively. In multivariable analysis, we found associations of prior pregnancy (hazard ratio [HR] 3.61[1.56-8.38]), Black race (HR 4.61[1.97-10.80]), age 16 to 25 years (HR 2.37[1.09-5.15]) and compliance <99% of expected pills (HR 4.21[2.04-8.66]) with conception. CONCLUSION: E4/DRSP is an effective oral contraceptive overall and across subgroups stratified by age, contraceptive history, and BMI. Other than compliance, predictors of contraceptive failure are nonmodifiable. IMPLICATIONS STATEMENT: Pooled results from two phase 3 trials demonstrate high contraceptive efficacy of the novel estetrol-drospirenone oral contraceptive. Several non-modifiable risk factors, including prior pregnancy, race, and age, are associated with higher pregnancy risk. Additional research is needed to better understand predictors of combined oral contraceptive failure.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it