Test Performance Characteristics of Dynamic Liver Enzyme Trends in the Prediction of Choledocholithiasis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
(1) Background: Various methods to predict the presence or absence of choledocholithiasis (CDL) have been proposed. We aimed to assess the performance characteristics of dynamic liver enzyme trends in the prediction of CDL. (2) Methods: This was a single-center retrospective cohort study. All adult in-patients undergoing endoscopy for suspected CDL between 1 January 2012 and 7 October 2018 were identified, with patients with prior cholecystectomy, prior sphincterotomy, or indwelling biliary prostheses were excluded. Available laboratory parameters within 72 h preceding the procedure were recorded, allowing for the assessment of trends. Dynamic enzyme trends were defined as any increase or decrease by 30% and 50% within 72 h of the index procedure. (3) Results: A total of 878 patients were included. Mean age was 61.8 years, with 58.6% female. Increases in alkaline phosphatase (ALP) of at least 30% or 50% were both specific for the presence of CDL, with specificities of 82.7% (95% CI 69.7-91.8%) and 88.5% (95% CI 76.6-95.6%), respectively. Decreases in bilirubin or ALP of at least 50% were highly specific for the absence of CDL, with specificities of 91.7% (95% CI 85.7-95.8%) and 100.0% (97.2-100.0%), respectively. (4) Conclusions: Several liver enzyme trends appear to be specific for the absence or presence of stones; in particular, significant decreases in total bilirubin or ALP of at least 30-50% over the prior 72 h appear to be especially predictive of an absence of intraductal findings during endoscopy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".