Peer Review #2 of "Assisted migration and the rare endemic plant species: the case of two endangered Mexican spruces (v0.2)"
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: In the projected climate change scenarios, assisted migration might play an important role in the conservation of the threatened plant species, by translocate them to similar suitable habitats outside their native distributions.However, it is unclear if such habitats will be available for the Rare Endemic Plant Species (REPS), because of their very restricted habitats.The aims of this study were to perform a population size assessment for the REPS Picea martinezii Patterson and Picea mexicana Martínez, and to evaluate the potential species distributions and their possibilities for assisted migration inside Mexico and worldwide.Methods: We performed demographic censuses, field surveys in search for new stands, and developed distribution models for Last Glacial Maximum (22,000 years ago), Middle Holocene (6,000 years ago), current and future (2050 and 2070) periods, for the whole Mexican territory (considering climatic, soil, geologic and topographic variables) and for all global land areas (based only on climate).Results: Our censuses showed populations of 89,266 and 39,059 individuals for P. martinezii and P. mexicana, respectively, including known populations and new stands.Projections for Mexico indicated somewhat larger suitable areas in the past, now restricted to the known populations and new stands, where they will disappear by 2050 in a pessimistic climatic scenario, and scarce marginal areas (p = 0.5-0.79)remaining only for P. martinezii by 2070.Worldwide projections (based only on climate variables) revealed few marginal areas in 2050 only in Mexico for P. martinezii, and several large areas (p ≥ 0.5) for P. mexicana around the world (all outside Mexico), especially on The Himalayas in India and the Chungyang mountains in Taiwan with highly suitable (p ≥ 0.8) climate habitats in current and future (2050) conditions.However, those suitable areas are currently inhabited by other endemic spruces: Picea smithiana (Wall.)Boiss and Picea morrisonicola Hayata, respectively.Conclusions: Assisted migration would only be an option for P. martinezii on scarce marginal sites in Mexico, and the possibilities for P. mexicana would be continental and transcontinental translocations.This rises two possible issues for future ex situ conservation programs: the first is related to whether or not consider assisted migration to marginal sites which do not cover the main habitat requirements for the species; the second is related to which species (the local or the foreign) should be prioritized for PeerJ reviewing PDF | (2022:03:71603:2:0:NEW
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.019 | 0.141 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.119 | 0.044 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".