Future Southern Ocean warming linked to projected ENSO variability
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Southern Ocean is a primary heat sink that buffers atmospheric warming and has warmed substantially, accounting for an outsized portion of global warming-induced excess heat in the climate system. However, its projected warming is highly uncertain and varies substantially across climate models. Here, using outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six models, we show that Southern Ocean warming during the twenty-first century is linked to the change in amplitude of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Models simulating a larger increase in ENSO amplitude systematically produce a slower Southern Ocean warming; conversely, a smaller increase in ENSO amplitude sees a stronger warming. The asymmetry in amplitude and teleconnection between El Niño and La Niña produce cumulative surface wind anomalies over the southern high latitudes, impacting Southern Ocean heat uptake. The magnitude of inter-model ENSO variations accounts for about 50% of the uncertainty in the projected Southern Ocean warming.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".