Maximizing the impact of limited vaccine supply under different epidemic conditions: a two-city monkeypox modelling analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract background In the current global monkeypox outbreak, many jurisdictions have been faced with limited vaccine supply, motivating interest in efficient allocation. We sought to explore optimal vaccine allocation between two linked transmission networks over a short-term time horizon, across a range of epidemic conditions. methods We constructed a deterministic compartmental sveir model of monkeypox transmission. We parameterized the model to reflect two representative, weakly connected gbmsm sexual networks (cities) in Ontario. We simulated roll-out of 5000 vaccine doses over 15 days, starting 60 days after epidemic seeding with 10 imported cases. Within this model, we varied: the relative city (network) sizes, epidemic potentials ( R 0 ), between-city mixing, and distribution of imported/seed cases between cities. In each context (combination of varied factors), we then identified the “optimal” allocation of doses between cities — resulting in the fewest cumulative infections by day 120. results Under our modelling assumptions, we found that a fixed supply of vaccines could generally avert more infections over short-term time horizons when prioritized to: a larger transmission network, a network with more initial infections, and/or a network with greater R 0 . Greater between-city mixing decreased the influence of initial seed cases, and increased the influence of city R 0 on optimal allocation. Under mixed conditions (e.g. fewer seed cases but greater R 0 ), optimal allocation saw doses shared between cities, suggesting that proximity-based and risk-based vaccine prioritization can work in combination to minimize transmission. interpretation Prioritization of limited vaccine supply based on network-level risk factors can help minimize transmission during an emerging epidemic. Such prioritization should be grounded in an understanding of context-specific drivers of risk, and should acknowledge the potential connectedness of multiple transmission networks.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".