Transformation of coral communities subjected to an unprecedented heatwave is modulated by local disturbance
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Corals are imminently threatened by climate change-amplified marine heatwaves. Yet how to conserve reef ecosystems faced with this threat remains unclear, since protected reefs often seem equally or more susceptible to thermal stress as unprotected ones. Here, we disentangle this apparent paradox, revealing that the relationship between reef disturbance and heatwave impacts depends upon the focal scale of biological organization. We document a heatwave of unprecedented duration that culminated in an 89% loss of coral cover. At the community level, losses hinged on pre-heatwave community structure, with sites dominated by competitive corals—which were predominantly protected from local disturbance—undergoing the greatest losses. In contrast, at the species level, survivorship of individual coral colonies typically decreased as local disturbance intensified, illustrating that underlying chronic disturbances can impair resilience to thermal stress at this scale. Our study advances understanding of the relationship between climate change and local disturbance, knowledge of which is crucial for coral conservation this century.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".