Associations of body mass index, fasting insulin, and inflammation with mortality: a prospective cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Obesity is often considered to increase the risk for premature mortality. Higher fasting insulin and c-reactive protein are associated with higher body mass index (BMI) and all-cause mortality, so may confound the association between obesity and mortality. Our objective was to determine the independent associations between BMI, fasting insulin, c-reactive protein, and all-cause mortality in a general population sample. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included non-institutionalized US adults (≥20 years) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 1999-2000 to 2013-2014. The main exposures of interest were BMI, fasting insulin, c-reactive protein. Mortality data were obtained through linking participants to the National Death Index (ending December 31, 2015). RESULTS: (IQR 24-32), median fasting insulin was 54 pmol/L (IQR 35-87), and median c-reactive protein was 1.9 mg/L (IQR 0.8-4.4). In a Cox model adjusted for age, biological sex, cigarette smoking, and ten chronic conditions, higher BMI parameterized with quadratic and linear terms was not associated with mortality. When fasting insulin and the natural logarithm of c-reactive protein were included in the model, an inverse association between BMI and mortality was present (compared to the referent category of 5th percentile: 1st percentile, HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.13; 99th percentile, HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.34-0.69). In contrast, higher levels of fasting insulin and c-reactive protein were associated with an increased risk of mortality (for fasting insulin: 1st percentile, HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99; 99th percentile, HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.48-2.26; for c-reactive protein, 1st percentile, HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.84-0.90; 99th percentile, HR 2.77, 95% CI 2.12-3.62). CONCLUSIONS: Higher fasting insulin and higher c-reactive protein confound the association between BMI and the risk of all-cause mortality. The increase in mortality that has been attributed to higher BMI is more likely due to hyperinsulinemia and inflammation rather than obesity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".