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Record W4295292764 · doi:10.1016/j.gloepi.2022.100085

P-value, compatibility, and S-value

2022· article· en· W4295292764 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueGlobal Epidemiology · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicMeta-analysis and systematic reviews
Canadian institutionsUniversity of British Columbia
Fundersnot available
KeywordsCompatibility (geochemistry)Confidence intervalOverconfidence effectStatisticsStatistical hypothesis testingMathematicsEconometricsComputer sciencePsychologySocial psychology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Misinterpretations of P-values and 95% confidence intervals are ubiquitous in medical research. Specifically, the terms significance or confidence, extensively used in medical papers, ignore biases and violations of statistical assumptions and hence should be called overconfidence terms. In this paper, we present the compatibility view of P-values and confidence intervals; the P-value is interpreted as an index of compatibility between data and the model, including the test hypothesis and background assumptions, whereas a confidence interval is interpreted as the range of parameter values that are compatible with the data under background assumptions. We also suggest the use of a surprisal measure, often referred to as the S-value, a novel metric that transforms the P-value, for gauging compatibility in terms of an intuitive experiment of coin tossing.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.277
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.149
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesMetaresearch, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.251
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.2770.149
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0040.001
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0020.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0120.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.799
GPT teacher head0.591
Teacher spread0.208 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it