The JCMT Transient Survey: Single-epoch Transients and Variability of Faint Sources
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Short-duration flares at millimeter wavelengths provide unique insights into the strongest magnetic reconnection events in stellar coronae and combine with longer-term variability to introduce complications to next-generation cosmology surveys. We analyze 5.5 yr of JCMT Transient Survey 850 μm submillimeter monitoring observations toward eight Gould Belt star-forming regions to search for evidence of transient events or long-duration variability from faint sources. The eight regions (30′ diameter fields), including ∼1200 infrared-selected YSOs, have been observed on average 47 times with integrations of approximately half an hour, or one day total, spread over 5.5 yr. Within this large data set, only two robust faint source detections are recovered: JW 566 in OMC 2/3 and MGM12 2864 in NGC 2023. JW 566, a Class II T Tauri binary system previously identified as an extraordinary submillimeter flare, remains unique, the only clear single-epoch transient detection in this sample with a flare eight times bright than our ∼4.5σ detection threshold of 55 mJy beam−1. The lack of additional recovered flares intermediate between JW 566 and our detection limit is puzzling if smaller events are more common than larger events. In contrast, the other submillimeter variable identified in our analysis, Source 2864, is highly variable on all observed timescales. Although Source 2864 is occasionally classified as a YSO, the source is most likely a blazar. The degree of variability across the electromagnetic spectrum may be used to aid source classification.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".