Treatment Discontinuation Prediction in Patients With Diabetes Using a Ranking Model: Machine Learning Model Development
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Treatment discontinuation (TD) is one of the major prognostic issues in diabetes care, and several models have been proposed to predict a missed appointment that may lead to TD in patients with diabetes by using binary classification models for the early detection of TD and for providing intervention support for patients. However, as binary classification models output the probability of a missed appointment occurring within a predetermined period, they are limited in their ability to estimate the magnitude of TD risk in patients with inconsistent intervals between appointments, making it difficult to prioritize patients for whom intervention support should be provided. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop a machine-learned prediction model that can output a TD risk score defined by the length of time until TD and prioritize patients for intervention according to their TD risk. METHODS: This model included patients with diagnostic codes indicative of diabetes at the University of Tokyo Hospital between September 3, 2012, and May 17, 2014. The model was internally validated with patients from the same hospital from May 18, 2014, to January 29, 2016. The data used in this study included 7551 patients who visited the hospital after January 1, 2004, and had diagnostic codes indicative of diabetes. In particular, data that were recorded in the electronic medical records between September 3, 2012, and January 29, 2016, were used. The main outcome was the TD of a patient, which was defined as missing a scheduled clinical appointment and having no hospital visits within 3 times the average number of days between the visits of the patient and within 60 days. The TD risk score was calculated by using the parameters derived from the machine-learned ranking model. The prediction capacity was evaluated by using test data with the C-index for the performance of ranking patients, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and area under the precision-recall curve for discrimination, in addition to a calibration plot. RESULTS: The means (95% confidence limits) of the C-index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and area under the precision-recall curve for the TD risk score were 0.749 (0.655, 0.823), 0.758 (0.649, 0.857), and 0.713 (0.554, 0.841), respectively. The observed and predicted probabilities were correlated with the calibration plots. CONCLUSIONS: A TD risk score was developed for patients with diabetes by combining a machine-learned method with electronic medical records. The score calculation can be integrated into medical records to identify patients at high risk of TD, which would be useful in supporting diabetes care and preventing TD.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it