Unusually thick freshwater ice and its impacts on aquatic resources in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPR-A) during the winter of 2020–2021
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Despite a long-term thinning trend in freshwater ice in northern Alaska, cold low-snow cover winters can still emerge to grow thick ice. In 2021, we observed abnormally thick ice by winter's end on lakes and rivers throughout the Fish Creek Watershed in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. This recent and anomalous winter presented an opportunity to assess how such conditions, more typical of many decades previous, affected aquatic habitat and winter water supply. Observed maximum ice thickness in 2021 of 1.9 m closely matched low-snow ice growth simulations, whereas previous records averaged 1.5 m and more closely matched high-snow ice growth simulations. The resulting extent of bedfast lake ice from late winter synthetic aperture radar (SAR) analysis in 2021 was the highest on record since 1992. This SAR analysis suggests a 33% reduction in liquid water below ice by lake surface area compared with the recent thin-ice winter of 2018 (1.2 m). Together, these results help place the cold, low-snow winter of 2020–2021 in context of the long-term trend toward warmer, snowier winters that appear to becoming more common in Arctic Alaska.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".