Meta-Analysis Reveals the Vaginal Microbiome is a Better Predictor of Earlier Than Later Preterm Birth
Bibliographic record
Abstract
High-throughput sequencing measurements of the vaginal microbiome have yielded intriguing potential relationships between the vaginal microbiome and preterm birth (PTB; live birth prior to 37 weeks of gestation). However, results across studies have been inconsistent. Here we perform an integrated analysis of previously published datasets from 12 cohorts of pregnant women whose vaginal microbiomes were measured by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Of 1926 women included in our analysis, 568 went on to deliver prematurely. Substantial variation between these datasets existed in their definition of preterm birth, characteristics of the study populations, and sequencing methodology. Nevertheless, a small group of taxa comprised a vast majority of the measured microbiome in all cohorts. We trained machine learning (ML) models to predict PTB from the composition of the vaginal microbiome, finding low to modest predictive accuracy (0.28-0.79). Predictive accuracy was typically lower when ML models trained in one dataset predicted PTB in another dataset. Earlier preterm birth (<32 weeks, <34 weeks) was more predictable from the vaginal microbiome than late preterm birth (34 - 37 weeks), both within and across datasets. Integrated differential abundance analysis revealed a highly significant negative association between L. crispatus and PTB that was consistent across almost all studies. The presence of the majority (18 out of 25) of genera was associated with a higher risk of PTB, with L. iners, Prevotella , and Gardnerella showing particularly consistent and significant associations. Some example discrepancies between studies could be attributed to specific methodological differences, but not most study-to-study variations in the relationship between the vaginal microbiome and preterm birth. We believe future studies of the vaginal microbiome and PTB will benefit from a focus on earlier preterm births, and improved reporting of specific patient metadata shown to influence the vaginal microbiome and/or birth outcomes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.011 | 0.023 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.016 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".