Sensitivity analysis of a lake sturgeon population with early life stage density-dependent effects
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens) exhibit a complex life-history strategy where behaviour, including habitat selection, depends on ontogenetic stage. Protection or recovery efforts for one stage may not impact other stages. Stage-structured models have been used to explore the sensitivity of the population to changes in vital rates of individual stages. Recent research demonstrates that juvenile mortality may be lower than estimated in prior modelling efforts and density-dependent. We constructed a Lefkovitch matrix model to reflect an updated understanding of the prerecruitment stages of the lake sturgeon. We then compared the model to a population of lake sturgeon on the Ontario−Minnesota border. Our model predicts that population growth rate, time to equilibrium, and final population size were most sensitive to changes to the survival of early adults, followed by subadults and juveniles. Sensitivity to changes in age-0 survival was very low in contrast to earlier modelling efforts, while sensitivities to juvenile (ages 1–7 years) and subadult (ages 8–23 years) were higher than previously reported values.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.022 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".