Individual lifetime benefit from low-dose colchicine in chronic coronary artery disease patients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Low-dose colchicine reduces the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with chronic coronary artery disease (CAD), but the absolute benefit may vary between patients. Individual benefit from preventive therapies can be estimated using the guideline-recommended SMART-REACH model. Purpose This study aimed to assess the range of individual absolute 10-year and lifetime benefit from low-dose colchicine according to patient risk profile. Methods The SMART-REACH model was combined with the relative treatment effect of low-dose colchicine, and applied to all participants from the LoDoCo2 trial (n=5,522), and patients with chronic CAD from the UCC-SMART cohort (n=5,308). Individual treatment benefit was expressed as (i) 10-year absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or cardiovascular death (MACE), and (ii) life-years gained free of MACE. Predictions were also performed for MACE plus ischemia-driven coronary revascularization (MACE+), through development of a new competing risk-adjusted lifetime prediction model in data from the REACH registry (n=14,522). Low-dose colchicine was compared to alternative intensive prevention goals, i.e. low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-c) reduction to <1.4 mmol/L, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) reduction to <130 mmHg. Results Median individual 10-year ARR for MACE from low-dose colchicine therapy was 4.6% (interquartile range [IQR] 3.6–6.0%), and median gain in life expectancy free of MACE was 2.0 (IQR 1.6–2.5) years. Median 10-year ARR for MACE+ was 8.6% (IQR 7.6–9.8%), and median gain in MACE+-free life expectancy was 3.4 (IQR 2.6–4.2) years. For intensified LDL-c and SBP reduction respectively, median 10-year ARRs were 3.0% (IQR 1.5–5.1%) and 1.7% (IQR 0.0–5.7%) for MACE, and 5.2% (IQR 2.5–8.7%) and 2.9% (IQR 0.0–9.5%) for MACE+. Median life-years gained from LDL-c and SBP reduction were 1.2 (IQR 0.6–2.1) and 0.7 (IQR 0.0–2.3) years free of MACE, and 1.8 (IQR 0.8–3.3) and 0.9 (IQR 0.0–3.4) years free of MACE+. Conclusion The individual absolute benefit from low-dose colchicine varies between patients. In an era where lipid- and blood pressure-lowering therapies are already routinely used, the benefits of low-dose colchicine are expected to be of at least similar magnitude to those of intensified LDL-c and SBP reduction in patients with chronic CAD. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".