Exploring the origins of polarizing populism: Insights from the Peronist struggle over rights
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Much of the literature on populism, including that on Peronism in Argentina, focuses on the us/them, good versus evil, nature of populist rhetoric as instrumental in polarizing society and eroding democracy. This work challenges this perspective by placing an analysis of Peron’s speeches (from 1943 to 1955) within the pre-existing historical context of division between urban elites and poor rural masses. The work argues that Peronist rhetoric, while shaped by this context, nevertheless developed its core populist features over time. Initially, Peronist discourse displayed conciliatory and inclusive features. It is only from 1949 that a Manichean discourse emerges, the consequence of an interactive process in which both Peronism and anti-Peronism become radicalized, each side responding to rhetoric and actions taken by opponents. Contestation comes to center on the issue of political versus social rights. These findings suggest that the widespread focus on populist rhetorical features as instrumental in creating political polarization may obfuscate more complex underlying processes. Resumen: Explorando los orígenes del populismo polarizador: Ideas sobre la lucha peronista por los derechosGran parte de la bibliografía sobre el populismo, incluida la relativa al peronismo en Argentina, se centra en la naturaleza del nosotros/ellos, el bien contra el mal, de la retórica populista como instrumento polarizador de la sociedad y erosionador de la democracia. Este trabajo desafía esta perspectiva al situar un análisis de los discursos de Perón (de 1943 a 1955) dentro del contexto histórico preexistente de división entre las élites urbanas y las masas rurales pobres. El trabajo argumenta que la retórica peronista, aunque moldeada por este contexto, desarrolló sin embargo sus rasgos populistas fundamentales a lo largo del tiempo. Inicialmente, el discurso peronista mostraba rasgos conciliadores e inclusivos. Sólo a partir de 1949 surge un discurso maniqueo, consecuencia de un proceso interactivo en el que tanto el peronismo como el antiperonismo se radicalizan, respondiendo cada bando a la retórica y a las acciones de los oponentes. La contestación llega a centrarse en la cuestión de los derechos políticos frente a los sociales. Estos hallazgos sugieren que el enfoque generalizado en las características retóricas de las listas populares como instrumento para crear la polarización política puede ofuscar procesos subyacentes más complejos.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it