Relationship Between Weather and Changes in Annual and Seasonal Abundance of <i>Culicoides sonorensis</i> (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Alberta
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Factors influencing annual and seasonal abundance of Culicoides sonorensis (Wirth and Jones) (Diptera; Ceratopogonidae) were examined at 10 sites in southern Alberta using negative binomial regression. Annual abundance varied among locations with greatest abundance in a narrow geographic band between -112.17 and -112.64°W longitude and 49.32 and 50.17°N latitude. Sites were grouped depending on whether abundance was continuous and high; discontinuous and low; or sporadic and low without much loss of information. Maximum annual abundance declined with spring precipitation, increased with spring temperature, and was unrelated to spring relative humidity, suggesting that abundance is highest during years with early drought conditions. Seasonal abundance was associated with the same factors but was further influenced by temperature and relative humidity during the sample intervals. Lagged effects were apparent, suggesting abundance increased with warmer temperatures over a six-week period, and increased when relative humidity declined closer to the sampling period. Predicted values were slightly biased and tended to overestimate observed data, but this could be adjusted using calibration curves. The model can also be used to predict presence/absence of C. sonorensis and will be useful for developing risk assessments.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".