Community determinants of COPD exacerbations in elderly patients in Lodz province, Poland: a retrospective observational Big Data cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prevalence and identify demographic, economic and environmental local community determinants of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations in elderly in primary care using Big Data approach. DESIGN: Retrospective observational case-control study based on Big Data from the National Health Found, Tax Office and National Statistics Center databases in 2016. SETTING: Primary care clinics in the Lodz province in Poland. PARTICIPANTS: 472 314 patients aged 65 and older in primary care, including 17 240 patients with COPD and 1784 with exacerbations (including deaths). OUTCOME MEASURES: Exacerbations with demographic, economic and environmental local community determinants were retrieved. Conditional logistic regression for matched pairs was used to evaluate the local community determinants of COPD exacerbations among patients with COPD. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of COPD in the population of elderly patients registered in primary healthcare clinic clinics in Lodz province in 2016 was 3.65%, 95% CI (3.60% to 3.70%) and the prevalence of exacerbations was 10.35%, 95% CI (9.89% to 10.80%). The high number of consultations in primary care clinics was associated with higher risk of COPD exacerbations (p=0.0687).High-income patients were less likely to have exacerbations than low-income patients (high vs low OR 0.601, 95% CI (0.385 to 0.939)). The specialisation of the primary care physician did not have an effect on exacerbations (OR 1.076, 95% CI (0.920 to 1.257)). Neither the forest cover per gmina (high vs low OR 0.897, 95% CI (0.605 to 1.331); medium vs low OR 0.925, 95% CI (0.648 to 1.322)), nor location of gmina (urban vs urban-rural OR 1.044; 95% CI (0.673 to 1.620)), (rural vs urban-rural OR 0.897, 95% CI (0.630 to 1.277)) appears to influence COPD exacerbations. CONCLUSIONS: Big Data statistical analysis facilitated the evaluation of the prevalence and determinants of COPD exacerbation in the elderly residents of Lodz province, Poland.Modification of identified local community determinants may potentially decrease the number of exacerbations in elderly patients with COPD.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".