Describing a complex primary health care population to support future decision support initiatives
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction: Developing decision support tools using data from a health care organization, to support care within that organization, is a promising paradigm to improve care delivery and population health. Descriptive epidemiology may be a valuable supplement to stakeholder input towards selection of potential initiatives and to inform methodological decisions throughout tool development. We additionally propose that to properly characterize complex populations in large-scale descriptive studies, both simple statistical and machine learning techniques can be useful. Objective: To describe sociodemographic, clinical, and health care use characteristics of primary care clients served by the Alliance for Healthier Communities, which provides team-based primary health care through Community Health Centres (CHCs) across Ontario, Canada. Methods: We used electronic health record data from adult ongoing primary care clients served by CHCs in 2009-2019. We performed traditional table-based summaries for each characteristic; and applied three unsupervised learning techniques to explore patterns of common condition co-occurrence, care provider teams, and care frequency. Results: There were 221,047 eligible clients. Sociodemographics: We described 13 characteristics, stratified by CHC type and client multimorbidity status. Clinical characteristics: Eleven-year prevalence of 24 investigated conditions ranged from 1% (Hepatitis C) to 63% (chronic musculoskeletal problem) with non-uniform risk across the care history; multimorbidity was common (81%) with variable co-occurrence patterns. Health care use characteristics: Most care was provided by physician and nursing providers, with heterogeneous combinations of other provider types. A subset of clients had many issues addressed within single-visits and there was within- and between-client variability in care frequency. In addition to substantive findings, we discuss methodological considerations for future decision support initiatives. Conclusions: We demonstrated the use of methods from statistics and machine learning, applied with an epidemiological lens, to provide an overview of a complex primary care population and lay a foundation for stakeholder engagement and decision support tool development.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.011 | 0.031 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".