Warming soil temperature and increasing baseflow in response to recent and potential future climate change across northern Manitoba, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrology and soil thermal regime of 10 sub‐arctic watersheds (northern Manitoba, Canada) using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We utilize statistically downscaled and bias‐corrected forcing datasets based on 17 general circulation model (GCM) ‐ representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to run the VIC model for three 30‐year periods: a historical baseline (1981–2010: 1990s), and future projections (2021–2050: 2030s and 2041–2070: 2050s), under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Future warming increases the average soil column temperature by ~2.2°C in the 2050s and further analyses of soil temperature trends at three different depths show the most pronounced warming in the top soil layer (1.6°C 30‐year −1 in the 2050s). Trend estimates of mean annual frozen soil moisture fraction in the soil column show considerable changes from 0.02 30‐year −1 (1990s) to −0.11 30‐year −1 (2050s) across the study area. Soil column water residence time decreases significantly (by 5 years) during the 2050s when compared with the 1990s as soil thawing intensifies the infiltration process thereby contributing to faster conversion to baseflow. Future warming results in 40%–50% more baseflow by the 2050s, where it increases substantially by 19.7% and 46.3% during the 2030s and 2050s, respectively. These results provide crucial information on the potential future impacts of warming soil temperatures on the hydrology of sub‐arctic watersheds in north‐central Canada and similar hydro‐climatic regimes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".