Predicting Cognitive Decline in Older Adults Using Baseline Metrics of AD Pathologies, Cerebrovascular Disease, and Neurodegeneration
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Dementia is a growing socio-economic challenge that requires early intervention. Identifying biomarkers that reliably predict clinical progression early in the disease process would better aid selection of individuals for future trial participation. Here we compared the ability of baseline, single time-point biomarkers (CSF amyloid 1-42, CSF ptau-181, white matter hyperintensities (WMH), cerebral microbleeds (CMB), whole-brain volume, and hippocampal volume) to predict decline in cognitively normal individuals who later converted to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) (CNtoMCI), and those with MCI who later converted to an Alzheimer’s disease (AD) diagnosis (MCItoAD). Methods: Standardised baseline biomarker data from ADNI2/Go, and longitudinal diagnostic data (including ADNI3), were used. Cox regression models assessed biomarkers in relation to time to change in clinical diagnosis using all follow-up timepoints available. Models were fit for biomarkers univariately, and together in a multivariable model. Hazard Ratios (HR) were compared to evaluate biomarkers. Analyses were performed separately in CNtoMCI and MCItoAD groups. Results: For CNtoMCI (n = 189), there was strong evidence that higher WMH volume (individual model: HR 1.79, p = .002; fully-adjusted model: HR 1.98, p = .003), and lower hippocampal volume (individual: HR 0.54, p = .001; fully-adjusted: HR 0.40, p < .001) were associated with conversion to MCI individually and independently. For MCItoAD (n = 345), lower hippocampal (individual model: HR 0.45, p < .001; fully-adjusted model: HR 0.55, p < .001) and whole-brain volume (individual: HR 0.31, p < .001; fully-adjusted: HR 0.48, p = .02), increased CSF ptau (individual: HR 1.88, p < .001; fully-adjusted: HR 1.61, p < .001), and lower CSF amyloid (individual: HR 0.37, p < .001, fully-adjusted: HR 0.62, p = .008) were most strongly associated with conversion to AD individually and independently. Discussion: Lower hippocampal volume was a consistent predictor of clinical conversion to MCI and AD. CSF and brain volume biomarkers were predictive of conversion to AD from MCI, while WMH were predictive of conversion to MCI from cognitively normal. The predictive ability of WMH in the CNtoMCI group may be interpreted as some being on a different pathological pathway, such as vascular cognitive impairment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".