New estimation of the prevalence of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA) related to pulmonary TB – a revised burden for India
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA) may be confused with, or a coinfection of, pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), or may manifest itself after completion of antituberculous therapy (ATT). Methods: Literature searches were conducted on PubMed. The selected studies stated the timing of CPA diagnosis with respect to PTB. The key assumptions for estimating the annual incidence, annual deaths, and 5-year-period prevalence related to CPA were: of the clinically diagnosed PTB patients , 19% of those HIV-negative had CPA and 7% of HIV-positive patients had CPA; the percentage of patients presenting in the first year after PTB diagnosis or developing CPA as ATT finished was 10%; the annual rate of development of CPA from 2-5 years after PTB diagnosis was 1.5%; and the mortality of CPA was 20% in year 1 and 7.5% thereafter to year 5. Findings: In India, the annual incidence of CPA arising in PTB patients in 2019 was estimated to be 363 601 cases (range 254 521 - 472 682) and 42 766 deaths (range 29 936-55 595) - 10.5% of total PTB deaths. The 5-year-period prevalence of CPA was estimated at 1 575 716 , with an additional 100 715 deaths' total range of deaths 100 436- 186 525) annually. Interpretation: The revised estimation indicates a substantial unmet need for better diagnosis of CPA as part of a complex PTB-related respiratory morbidity burden.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".