UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, November 2022
Bibliographic record
Abstract
International tourism on track to reach 65% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022 International tourism showed robust performance in January-September 2022, with arrivals reaching 63% of pre-pandemic levels in the first nine months of 2022. An estimated 700 million tourists travelled internationally between January and September, more than double (+133%) the number recorded in the same period of 2021. Results were boosted by strong pent-up demand, improved confidence levels and the lifting of restrictions in an increasing number of destinations. Monthly arrivals climbed from -64% in January 2022 (versus 2019) to -27% in September, confirming the rapid and sustained recovery of international travel throughout the year. Tourism performance was particularly strong in the third quarter of 2022 (-26% over 2019) when an estimated 340 million international arrivals were recorded around the world, almost 50% of the nine-month total. Europe (+126%) continued to lead the rebound of international tourism through September, reaching 81% of pre-pandemic levels. The Middle East saw international arrivals more than triple (+225%) year-on-year in January-September 2022, climbing to 77% of 2019 levels. Africa (+166%) and the Americas (+106%) reached 63% and 66% of 2019 levels respectively. In Asia and the Pacific (+230%) arrivals more than tripled in the first nine months of 2022, reflecting the opening of many destinations, though remained 83% below 2019 levels. The recovery can also be seen in outbound tourism spending from major source markets, with strong results from France and Germany, where expenditure reached -8% and -12% respectively through September, compared to 2019. International arrivals could reach 65% of pre-pandemic levels in 2022, in line with UNWTO’s initial scenarios. Despite growing challenges pointing to a softening of the recovery pace in the coming months, export revenues from tourism could reach USD 1.2 to 1.3 trillion in 2022, a 60-70% increase over 2021, or 70-80% of the USD 1.8 trillion recorded in 2019.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.079 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".