The 2015–2017 Pamir earthquake sequence: foreshocks, main shocks and aftershocks, seismotectonics, fault interaction and fluid processes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
SUMMARY A sequence of three strong (MW7.2, 6.4, 6.6) earthquakes struck the Pamir of Central Asia in 2015–2017. With a local seismic network, we recorded the succession of the foreshock, main shock and aftershock sequences at local distances with good azimuthal coverage. We located 11 784 seismic events and determined 33 earthquake moment tensors. The seismicity delineates the tectonic structures of the Pamir in unprecedented detail, that is the thrusts that absorb shortening along the Pamir’s thrust front, and the strike-slip and normal faults that dissect the Pamir Plateau into a westward extruding block and a northward advancing block. Ruptures on the kinematically dissimilar faults were activated subsequently from the initial MW 7.2 Sarez event at times and distances that follow a diffusion equation. All main shock areas but the initial one exhibited foreshock activity, which was not modulated by the occurrence of the earlier earthquakes. Modelling of the static Coulomb stress changes indicates that aftershock triggering occurred over distances of ≤90 km on favourably oriented faults. The third event in the sequence, the MW 6.6 Muji earthquake, ruptured despite its repeated stabilization through stress transfer in the order of –10 kPa. To explain the accumulation of MW > 6 earthquakes, we reason that the initial main shock may have increased nearby fault permeability, and facilitated fluid migration into the mature fault zones, eventually triggering the later large earthquakes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".