Increased abundance and range expansion of harlequin ducks Histrionicus histrionicus wintering in Eastern Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The eastern population of harlequin duck Histrionicus histrionicus in Canada has been designated a species of special concern since 2001 and as endangered from 1991 to 2001, largely due to low and declining wintering numbers detected in the 1980s. Our objectives were to summarize the current state of knowledge of harlequin duck abundance and distribution in Eastern Canada, and assess trends in wintering abundance across regions over the past 30+ years. Abundance estimates were generated from targeted surveys with thorough spatial coverage of major wintering areas on insular Newfoundland (NL), Nova Scotia (NS), and New Brunswick (NB) between 2015 and 2018, complemented by regional trends estimated from Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data collected at 12 sites across the same wintering range between 1988 and 2021. Overall, targeted surveys indicated that numbers have increased and distributions have expanded beyond historically surveyed regions, particularly in NS. This was supported by trends from CBC data, with steep average increases (mean λ > 1.05) on most CBC circles in Eastern Canada since 1988 or later. Using localized annual rates of mean population change from CBC data to project counts from dedicated surveys, we suggest wintering areas in the provinces of NL, NS, and NB may currently be supporting a combined total of 5682 birds (95% CI 5065-6354) in 2022, well exceeding the recovery target of 3000 individuals listed in the 2007 management plan. Our findings indicate that the eastern population is in recovery, but also emphasize that a consistent, dedicated monitoring program would enable managers to confidently evaluate management actions, and to respond most effectively should regional trends slow or reverse.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".