1074. Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) in hospital wastewater (WW) and its correlation with hospitalized cases of COVID-19 and the occurrence of outbreaks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background WW surveillance enables real time monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 burden in defined sewer catchment areas. Here, we assessed the occurrence of total, Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 RNA in sewage from three tertiary-care hospitals in Calgary, Canada. Methods Nucleic acid was extracted from hospital (H) WW using the 4S-silica column method. H-1 and H-2 were assessed via a single autosampler whereas H-3 required three separate monitoring devices (a-c). SARS-CoV-2 RNA was quantified using two RT-qPCR approaches targeting the nucleocapsid gene; N1 and N200 assays, and the R203K/G204R and R203M mutations. Assays were positive if Cq< 40. Cross-correlation function analyses (CCF) was performed to determine the time-lagged relationships between WW signal and clinical cases. SARS-CoV-2 RNA abundance was compared to total hospitalized cases, nosocomial-acquired cases, and outbreaks. Statistical analyses were conducted using R. Results Ninety-six percent (188/196) of WW samples collected between Aug/21-Jan/22 were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Omicron rapidly supplanted Delta by mid-December and this correlated with lack of Delta-associated H-transmissions during a period of frequent outbreaks. The CCF analysis showed a positive autocorrelation between the RNA concentration and total cases, where the most dominant cross correlations occurred between -3 and 0 lags (weeks) (Cross-correlation values: 0.75, 0.579, 0.608, 0.528 and 0.746 for H-1, H-2, H-3a, H-3b and H-3c; respectively). VOC-specific assessments showed this positive association only to hold true for Omicron across all hospitals (cross-correlation occurred at lags -2 and 0, CFF value range between 0.648 -0.984). We observed a significant difference in median copies/ml SARS-CoV-2 N-1 between outbreak-free periods vs outbreaks for H-1 (46 [IQR: 11-150] vs 742 [IQR: 162-1176], P< 0.0001), H-2 (24 [IQR: 6-167] vs 214 [IQR: 57-560], P=0.009) and H-3c (2.32 [IQR: 0-19] vs 129 [IQR: 14-274], P=0.001). Conclusion WW surveillance is a powerful tool for early detection and monitoring of circulating SARS-CoV-2 VOCs. Total SARS-CoV-2 and VOC-specific WW signal correlated with hospitalized prevalent cases of COVID-19 and outbreak occurrence. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".