1074. Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) in hospital wastewater (WW) and its correlation with hospitalized cases of COVID-19 and the occurrence of outbreaks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background WW surveillance enables real time monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 burden in defined sewer catchment areas. Here, we assessed the occurrence of total, Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 RNA in sewage from three tertiary-care hospitals in Calgary, Canada. Methods Nucleic acid was extracted from hospital (H) WW using the 4S-silica column method. H-1 and H-2 were assessed via a single autosampler whereas H-3 required three separate monitoring devices (a-c). SARS-CoV-2 RNA was quantified using two RT-qPCR approaches targeting the nucleocapsid gene; N1 and N200 assays, and the R203K/G204R and R203M mutations. Assays were positive if Cq< 40. Cross-correlation function analyses (CCF) was performed to determine the time-lagged relationships between WW signal and clinical cases. SARS-CoV-2 RNA abundance was compared to total hospitalized cases, nosocomial-acquired cases, and outbreaks. Statistical analyses were conducted using R. Results Ninety-six percent (188/196) of WW samples collected between Aug/21-Jan/22 were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Omicron rapidly supplanted Delta by mid-December and this correlated with lack of Delta-associated H-transmissions during a period of frequent outbreaks. The CCF analysis showed a positive autocorrelation between the RNA concentration and total cases, where the most dominant cross correlations occurred between -3 and 0 lags (weeks) (Cross-correlation values: 0.75, 0.579, 0.608, 0.528 and 0.746 for H-1, H-2, H-3a, H-3b and H-3c; respectively). VOC-specific assessments showed this positive association only to hold true for Omicron across all hospitals (cross-correlation occurred at lags -2 and 0, CFF value range between 0.648 -0.984). We observed a significant difference in median copies/ml SARS-CoV-2 N-1 between outbreak-free periods vs outbreaks for H-1 (46 [IQR: 11-150] vs 742 [IQR: 162-1176], P< 0.0001), H-2 (24 [IQR: 6-167] vs 214 [IQR: 57-560], P=0.009) and H-3c (2.32 [IQR: 0-19] vs 129 [IQR: 14-274], P=0.001). Conclusion WW surveillance is a powerful tool for early detection and monitoring of circulating SARS-CoV-2 VOCs. Total SARS-CoV-2 and VOC-specific WW signal correlated with hospitalized prevalent cases of COVID-19 and outbreak occurrence. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".