Long-term Colectomy Rates of Ulcerative Colitis over 40 Years of Different Therapeutic Eras–Results from a Western Hungarian Population-based Inception Cohort Between 1977 and 2020
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Few populaion-based studies have investigated the long-term colectomy rates of ulcerative colitis [UC]. We aimed to assess the colectomy rates over 40 years of different therapeutic eras in a prospective population-based inception cohort from Veszprem Province, Western Hungary. METHODS: Patient inclusion lasted between January1, 1977, and December31, 2018. Patient follow-up ended December 31, 2020. Colectomy rates and disease course were examined in three different eras based on the time of UC diagnosis; cohort A [1977-1995], cohort B [1996-2008], and cohort C [2009-2018]. RESULTS: A total of 1370 incident UC patients were included [male 51.2%, median age at diagnosis 37 years]. Median follow-up was 17 years (interquartile range [IQR] 9-24); 87 patients [6.4%] underwent colectomy. The cumulative probability of colectomy in the total population was 2.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-3.0), 4.2% [95% CI 3.6-4.8], 7.0% [95% CI 6.2-7.8], and 10.4% [95% CI 9.1-11.7] after 5, 10, 20, and 30 years, respectively. The proportion of extensive colitis at diagnosis increased over time [24.2%/24.3%/34.9% in cohorts A/B/C, respectively, p = 0.001]. Overall exposure to immunomodulators [11.3%/20.9%/34.4% in cohorts A/B/C, respectively, p <0.001], as well as the probability for biologic therapy initiation increased over time (0%/3.3% [95% CI 2.6-4.0]/13.9% [95% CI 12.1-15.7], p <0.001). There were no statistically significant differences in the cumulative probability of colectomies between cohorts A/B/C: 1.7% [95% CI 1.0-2.4], 2.5% [95% CI 1.9-3.1], and 3.7% [95% CI 2.7-4.7] after 5 years; 3.5% [95% CI 2.5-4.5], 4.2% [95% CI 3.4-5.0], and 4.5% [95% CI 3.3-5.7] after 10 years; and 7.5% [95% CI 6.1-8.9] and 6.3% [95% CI 5.2-7.4] in cohorts A/B after 20 years [log-rank = 0.588]. Extensive colitis (hazard ratio [HR] 2.24, 95% CI 1.55-3.23) and continuous active disease activity [HR 6.36, 95% CI 3.46-11.67] were independent predictors for colectomy. CONCLUSION: No differences in colectomy rates have been observed in the incident UC patients over 40 years despite increasing use of immunomodulators and biologic therapies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".