AGE-DEPENDENT EXTINCTION AND THE NEUTRAL THEORY OF BIODIVERSITY
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
SignificanceRed Queen (RQ) theory predicts that competition among species should cause extinction risk to be independent of species age, but recent analyses have refuted this central prediction.To fill the resulting theoretical vacuum, we used ecological neutral theory to build a model of the lifespans of incompletely sampled species evolving under zero-sum competition.This model predicts survivorship among fossil zooplankton with surprising accuracy and accounts for empirical deviations from the predictions of RQ more generally.A neutral model of background extinction allows for interpreting survivorship curves in terms of biological process, suggests a novel understanding of mass extinctions, and supports a role for competition in extinction.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it