Range‐wide population genomics of the spongy moth, <i>Lymantria dispar</i> (Erebidae): Implications for biosurveillance, subspecies classification and phylogeography of a destructive moth
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The spongy moth, Lymantria dispar, is an irruptive forest pest native to Eurasia where its range extends from coast to coast and overspills into northern Africa. Accidentally introduced from Europe in Massachusetts in 1868–1869, it is now established in North America where it is considered a highly destructive invasive pest. A fine‐scale characterization of its population genetic structure would facilitate identification of source populations for specimens intercepted during ship inspections in North America and would enable mapping of introduction pathways to help prevent future incursions into novel environments. In addition, detailed knowledge of L. dispar's global population structure would provide new insight into the adequacy of its current subspecies classification system and its phylogeographic history. To address these issues, we generated >2000 genotyping‐by‐sequencing‐derived SNPs from 1445 contemporary specimens sampled at 65 locations in 25 countries/3 continents. Using multiple analytical approaches, we identified eight subpopulations that could be further partitioned into 28 groups, achieving unprecedented resolution for this species' population structure. Although reconciliation between these groupings and the three currently recognized subspecies proved to be challenging, our genetic data confirmed circumscription of the japonica subspecies to Japan. However, the genetic cline observed across continental Eurasia, from L. dispar asiatica in East Asia to L. d. dispar in Western Europe, points to the absence of a sharp geographical boundary (e.g., the Ural Mountains) between these two subspecies, as suggested earlier. Importantly, moths from North America and the Caucasus/Middle East displayed high enough genetic distances from other populations to warrant their consideration as separate subspecies of L. dispar. Finally, in contrast with earlier mtDNA‐based investigations that identified the Caucasus as L. dispar's place of origin, our analyses suggest continental East Asia as its evolutionary cradle, from where it spread to Central Asia and Europe, and to Japan through Korea.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".