A century of sampling at an ecological preserve reveals declining diversity of wild bees
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We analyzed the wild bee community from 1921 to 2018 at a nature preserve in southern Michigan, USA using museum records and found significant shifts in the bee community. Across the near century of records, species richness peaked in the 1970s and 1980s. There was an intensive bee survey completed by F.C. Evans in 1972 and 1973. We attempted to replicate his effort in 2017 and 2018, and again found a significant decline in species richness and evenness. There was also evidence of declining abundance in many of the more common species. We also conducted traits analyses using neural networks, revealing that oligolectic ground-nesting bees and cleptoparasitic bees were more likely to be extirpated whereas polylectic cavity-nesting bees were more likely to have persisted. Additionally, larger body size was associated with increased probability of local extirpation for polylectic cavity-nesting species. Larger phenological range was associated with increased chances of persistence for polylectic species, while it was associated with extirpation for oligolectic ground-nesting species. Species in the contemporary samples also had a more southerly overall distribution compared to the historic one. Open Research Statement Data used for analyses in this manuscript, including Evans’ original dataset from 1972/1973 with updated species nomenclature, will be permanently archived at the USDA Ag Data Commons after the acceptance of this manuscript and will be citable and accessible here: https://data.nal.usda.gov/dataset/century-sampling-ecological-preserve-reveals-declining-diversity-wild-bees . Complete instructions on how to access all data referenced in this manuscript can be found in Appendix S1.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".