A regime shift in North Pacific annual mean sea surface temperature in 2013/14
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study revealed a new regime shift in the North Pacific annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in 2013/14, robust in multiple SST data sets. This regime shift shows a horseshoe pattern with warming SST along the North American western coast and toward the Central Pacific. It suggests a phase reversal of the Victoria Mode (VM) and it seems unrelated to the shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Associated with this regime shift, the annual surface air temperature significantly enhanced over the high-latitude landmass after 2014, whereas it declined over northeastern Canada and southwestern Greenland. The annual precipitation generally increased (decreased) in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere landmass monsoon regions. There are no regime shifts in Equatorial Central-East Pacific SST and the intensity and locations of the Aleutian Low around 2013/14. These facts suggest the regime shift of North Pacific SST in 2013/14 may not originate from the decadal variations of the midlatitude atmosphere and tropical ocean. The extensive influence of this regime shift in 2013/14 on the atmospheric, oceanic and ecological systems warrants further investigation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it