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Record W4320482006 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2567333/v1

Stability of ENSO teleconnections during the last millennium in CESM

2023· preprint· en· W4320482006 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Xue Han, Yanjie Li, Fei Liu, Jinbao Li, Xiaotong Zhen, Licheng Feng

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square · 2023
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicClimate variability and models
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersNational Natural Science Foundation of China
KeywordsTeleconnectionClimatologyEnvironmental scienceMultivariate ENSO indexEl Niño Southern OscillationPrecipitationPacific decadal oscillationArctic oscillationForcing (mathematics)Atmospheric sciencesNorthern HemisphereGeologyGeographySouthern oscillationMeteorology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) poses large impacts on global climate through atmospheric teleconnections. Understanding the stability of ENSO teleconnections is not only important for future weather forecast and climate projection, but also for paleo-proxy based ENSO reconstructions. In this study, we explore decadal changes in ENSO teleconnections on global land surface temperature (LST) from 850 to 2005 AD using 13 ensemble members of the Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). The CESM can simulate the main cooling in Eurasia along with a warming Arctic over northern Canada and Greenland, known as the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern, during the boreal winter of an El Niño, as well as western Antarctic warming during El Niño developing and decaying summers. The decadal changes in ENSO teleconnections on LST show large anomalies with pattern highly similar to WACE and western Antarctic warming in winter and summers, respectively. The decadal changes are mainly caused by ENSO precipitation-excited Rossby wave source to the west or east of Hawaii, and LST response over South Siberia to ENSO and associated precipitation response over North Eurasia can even reverse sign during different phases of this decadal variability. The decadal changes in CESM may be related to the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and thus are likely attributed to internal variability rather than external forcing. Our results suggest that the decadal variability in ENSO teleconnections should be considered when reconstructing the ENSO using proxies from the Eurasian regions.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.010
Threshold uncertainty score0.019

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.111
GPT teacher head0.366
Teacher spread0.255 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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