Stability of ENSO teleconnections during the last millennium in CESM
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) poses large impacts on global climate through atmospheric teleconnections. Understanding the stability of ENSO teleconnections is not only important for future weather forecast and climate projection, but also for paleo-proxy based ENSO reconstructions. In this study, we explore decadal changes in ENSO teleconnections on global land surface temperature (LST) from 850 to 2005 AD using 13 ensemble members of the Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). The CESM can simulate the main cooling in Eurasia along with a warming Arctic over northern Canada and Greenland, known as the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern, during the boreal winter of an El Niño, as well as western Antarctic warming during El Niño developing and decaying summers. The decadal changes in ENSO teleconnections on LST show large anomalies with pattern highly similar to WACE and western Antarctic warming in winter and summers, respectively. The decadal changes are mainly caused by ENSO precipitation-excited Rossby wave source to the west or east of Hawaii, and LST response over South Siberia to ENSO and associated precipitation response over North Eurasia can even reverse sign during different phases of this decadal variability. The decadal changes in CESM may be related to the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and thus are likely attributed to internal variability rather than external forcing. Our results suggest that the decadal variability in ENSO teleconnections should be considered when reconstructing the ENSO using proxies from the Eurasian regions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".