MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W4320581640 · doi:10.1093/arclin/17.3.295

The perfidy of percentiles

2002· article· en· W4320581640 on OpenAlexaff
Marilyn L. Bowman

Bibliographic record

VenueArchives of Clinical Neuropsychology · 2002
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldPsychology
TopicDeception detection and forensic psychology
Canadian institutionsSimon Fraser University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPsychologyRecidivismPercentile rankNeuropsychologyPercentileMetric (unit)Cognitive psychologyInterpretation (philosophy)Meaning (existential)Compensation (psychology)Clinical psychologyMalingeringCognitionDevelopmental psychologySocial psychologyStatisticsPsychiatryPsychotherapistComputer science

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Standard texts in neuropsychology, forensic, and educational psychology recommend the use of percentile rank scores (PRs) in reports and in oral “feedback” on the grounds that percentiles are easily understood by nonpsychologists. This study tested that assumption, testing predictions that errors would be made consistent with misunderstanding PR values as units of equal intervals. Four hypotheses about errors in interpretation were tested using a 12-item task to assess third-year psychology undergraduates' estimates comparing PR scores against the familiar metric of IQ. All predictions of significant asymmetrical and systematic errors of interpretation were supported. Even psychometrically educated subjects grossly misinterpret the meaning of PRs. Commonly recommended graphical display formats may unwittingly enhance these errors. Implications are most significant for forensic neuropsychology. Apparently low PRs representing cognitive performance within the Average range will typically be misinterpreted to mean significant impairment and, thus, may distort compensation and personal injury awards. Conversely, apparently high PRs representing offender recidivism risk within the Average range will be misinterpreted as high risk and impede release.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesScience and technology studies, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Other design · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.906
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.003
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0050.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.110
GPT teacher head0.424
Teacher spread0.314 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designOther design
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations12
Published2002
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueArchives of Clinical NeuropsychologySame topicDeception detection and forensic psychologyFrench-language works237,207