Competitive interactions under current climate allow temperate tree species to grow and survive in boreal mixedwood forest
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With climate change, climatic optima are shifting poleward more rapidly than tree migration processes, resulting in a mismatch between species distributions and bioclimatic envelopes. Temperate hardwood tree species may take advantage of the release of climate constraints and forest management to migrate into the boreal forest. Here, we use the SORTIE‐ND forest simulation model to determine the potential for the persistence of three temperate species (sugar maple, red maple and yellow birch) when introduced at seedling stage in typical balsam fir–paper birch (BF–PB) bioclimatic domain stands of eastern Canada, quantifying the consequences on the native species composition. SORTIE‐ND is a spatially explicit, individual‐based forest stand model that simulates tree growth, regeneration and mortality. We performed a novel parameterization of the SORTIE‐ND tree growth equation allowing for the inclusion of climate modifiers on tree growth. After validating our model with data from permanent forest inventory plots, we modeled the dynamics of unharvested stands at different successional stages, as well as post‐harvest stands, after the addition of sugar maple, red maple and yellow birch seedlings at different densities. Our results show that current BF–PB domain climate conditions do not limit growth and survival of temperate species in boreal stands. Of the temperate species introduced, sugar maple had the lowest ability to grow and survive by the end of the simulation. Species assemblages of host stands were impacted by the presence of temperate species when the addition of seedlings was above 5000 temperate seedlings per hectare at the beginning of the simulation. For stands that were recently clear cut, temperate seedlings were unable to grow due to intense competition from aspen regeneration. Our results suggest that both current climate and competitive interactions between temperate species and boreal species should not impede the ability of temperate species to grow and survive in the BF–PB domain.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".