Exploring future changes in synchrony between grapevine (<i>Vitis vinifera</i>) and its major insect pest, <i>Lobesia botrana</i>
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) is one of the major pests of the grapevine (Vitis vinifera) in Europe. The phenology of both the insect pest and the plant has already changed over the last decades in response to rising temperatures, with a tendency towards an earlier development. The impact of a warming climate, among other factors, could alter matches in phenology between two trophic levels, being either beneficial or detrimental to V. vinifera. As a consequence, when considering a European latitudinal transect, the changes toward synchrony or a mismatch are not fully understood. In this study, we applied the results of sequential models to simulate the phenological development of V. vinifera from dormancy to physiological maturity of Chardonnay or a similar grape variety. Likewise, we simulated the phenology of L. botrana with a process-based voltinism model. Both models were calibrated and validated in previous studies. The present study aims at simulating the future evolution of both trophic levels under changing climatic conditions at four representative European locations by using quasi-transient climate scenarios up to the year 2100 that consider the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse-gas forcing pathways. Although some physiological adaptations could alter these results, simulations of synchrony under climate change are crucial for the adaptation of grape cultivation and varieties. This modelling work seeks to improve our understanding of the probable shifts in the timing and spatial distribution of the plant-insect interactions in a warmer climate and how this may impact their synchrony. A risk index of damage has been implemented for the different sites and greenhouse gas forcing trajectories. Results suggest an increasing damage risk for V. vinifera close to the timing of harvests in northern Europe. They also point to increasing mortality rates of the fourth generation of L. botrana in southern Europe, where temperatures will increasingly reach the upper thermal limit for insect development.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".