Simulating the multicausality of Alzheimer's disease with system dynamics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: In Alzheimer's disease (AD), cognitive decline is driven by various interlinking causal factors. Systems thinking could help elucidate this multicausality and identify opportune intervention targets. METHODS: We developed a system dynamics model (SDM) of sporadic AD with 33 factors and 148 causal links calibrated with empirical data from two studies. We tested the SDM's validity by ranking intervention outcomes on 15 modifiable risk factors to two sets of 44 and 9 validation statements based on meta-analyses of observational data and randomized controlled trials, respectively. RESULTS: The SDM answered 77% and 78% of the validation statements correctly. Sleep quality and depressive symptoms yielded the largest effects on cognitive decline with which they were connected through strong reinforcing feedback loops, including via phosphorylated tau burden. DISCUSSION: SDMs can be constructed and validated to simulate interventions and gain insight into the relative contribution of mechanistic pathways.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.020 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".