Sea-level rise projections of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, modeled using synchronously coupled subglacial hydrology and ice flow dynamics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Greenland ice shelves are known to display seasonal speedups of ice velocity which can be attributed to ice front position or to meltwater runoff, depending on which glacier is being examined. However, it remains uncertain if the seasonality of glacier speed will be impacted by climate change in the coming century. Current projections of glacier dynamics under 21st century climate forcings do not include subglacial hydrology, so it also remains unknown if it will play any important role in evolving glacier dynamics under different climate change scenarios, or ultimately have an impact on sea-level rise projections. Here we present a model with synchronous coupling of ice dynamics and subglacial hydrology applied to Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland. Petermann exhibits a summer-time acceleration of roughly 15% as compared to its baseline winter velocity, which is likely the result of subglacial hydrology. Although it has been relatively stable in recent years, as one of the largest marine terminating glaciers in northern Greenland, whether or not Petermann remains stable will have a significant impact on the sea-level contribution of the northern sector of the ice-sheet. We use climate through 2100 to investigate how the subglacial hydrologic system may evolve in a warmer climate and to test if including hydrology changes the stability of Petermann under future climate scenarios using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) which includes the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model. We compare glacier evolution and projected sea-level rise for three model configurations: one with synchronously coupled subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics, a second with asynchronous coupling where subglacial hydrology is calculated with static ice geometry and velocity but ice dynamics are calculated using effective pressure from GlaDS output, and a third where subglacial hydrology is excluded entirely from the model setup. Results show a significant increase in projected sea-level rise by the end of the century and differing patterns of grounding line migration and ice thinning when subglacial hydrology is included in the model configuration for Petermann.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".