Additional Possible Cause of the Erratic 2009 Monsoon Over South and East Asia: Large-Scale Change in the Upper Tropospheric Temperature
Bibliographic record
Abstract
It has been recognized by the scientific community for many years that erratic monsoon attribution should be prioritized in order to meet the growing demand for reliable monsoon forecasts. It is believed that the severe 2009 drought in the South and East Asian regions was caused by an erratic monsoon season, which has sparked enormous interest in its cause. In this study, we have identified a factor in the upper troposphere, i.e. the large-scale upper tropospheric temperature, which may have potentially functioned as a new cause. We have observed that a major change in the upper tropospheric temperature occurred, with one region over Central Asia and another over the eastern Tibetan Plateau; also observed is the interaction between these two local systems. The thermal wind link suggests that the 2009 circulations over the two different regions at 250 hPa – are characterized by a cyclone and an anti-cyclone over Central Asia and the eastern Tibetan Plateau, respectfully, and that this could be the dynamic cause of the 2009 monsoon prediction failure. Subtropical jets provide a means of connecting the dynamical systems in the two different regions, which have enhanced the convection over Central Asia and reduced the convection over South and East Asia during that period. Also revealed is the role of the thermodynamic processes, specifically the role of the vertical thermal contrast (VTC) over Central Asia and the eastern Tibetan Plateau, which is responsible for changing the convective patterns during the 2009 monsoon season. This is further substantiated by the inferred causal relationship between the upper VTC and longwave fluxes (LWFs) at the top of the atmosphere.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".