Numerical modeling of a potential landslide-generated tsunami in the southern Strait of Georgia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We report results of numerical simulations of a potential subaerial landslide on the coast of Orcas Island and the resultant tsunami waves in the southern Strait of Georgia near the US/Canada border. A likely trigger is strong ground shaking during large earthquakes on the nearby Holocene active Skipjack Island fault zone. For a worst-case scenario, we assume a 0.17 $${\textrm{km}}^3$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:msup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mtext>km</mml:mtext> </mml:mrow> <mml:mn>3</mml:mn> </mml:msup> </mml:math> rigid subaerial failure on the steep northeast coast of the island, spanning the $$\sim$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mo>∼</mml:mo> </mml:math> 5 km between previous landslide deposits on the adjacent seafloor. The landslide motion and resulting tsunami generation are modeled using the three-dimensional (3D) non-hydrostatics physics-based NHWAVE model. The simulated failure moves downslope with a peak velocity of 13.64ṁ/s and travels 732 m before coming to rest after 85 s in 75-m water depth. Tsunami propagation is then continued using the 2D fully nonlinear and dispersive Boussinesq wave model FUNWAVE-TVD in a succession of layered and nested grids. The modeling reveals susceptible locations, particularly as waves will arrive with little or no warning. In the near-source region, modeled waves have peak amplitudes of 15–20 m, current speeds of up to 10 m/s, and runup of up to 30 m. Smaller, but significant, wave amplitudes and runup occur throughout the region surrounding Orcas Island. In the tsunami propagation direction, runup reaches 7.5 m at Neptune Beach near Lummi Bay. Both initial and reflected waves cause significant runup (> 1.5 m) along much of the shoreline between Point Roberts and Lummi Bay.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".