The burden of gastrointestinal diseases in Japan, 1990–2019, and projections for 2035
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background and Aim: Disease burden estimation allows clinicians and policymakers to plan for future healthcare needs. Although advances have been made in gastroenterology, as Japan has an aging population, disease burden assessment is important. We aimed to report gastrointestinal disease burden in Japan since 1990 and project changes through to 2035. Methods: This descriptive study examined the crude and age-standardized rates of prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 22 gastrointestinal diseases between 1990 and 2019. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. We calculated the expected disease burden of gastrointestinal diseases by 2035 using an autoregressive integrated moving average. Results: Since 1990, cancer has accounted for most gastrointestinal disease-related causes of mortality and DALYs in Japan (77.1% and 71.2% in 1990, 79.2% and 73.7% in 2019, respectively). Although cancer-associated age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs have shown a decreasing trend, the crude rates have increased, suggesting that an aging society has a significant impact on the disease burden in Japan. Therefore, the overall gastrointestinal disease burden is expected to increase by 2035. Noncancerous chronic diseases with a high burden included cirrhosis, biliary disease, ileus, gastroesophageal reflux disorder, hernia, inflammatory bowel disease, enteric infections, and vascular intestinal disorders. In cirrhosis, the DALYs for hepatitis C decreased and the prevalence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis increased. Conclusion: In the super-aging Japanese society, the burden of gastrointestinal diseases is expected to increase in the coming years. Colorectal, gastric, pancreatic, and liver cancers are the focus of early detection and treatment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".