Long‐term monitoring of cycles in <i>Clethrionomys rutilus</i> in the Yukon boreal forest
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Baseline studies of small rodent populations in undisturbed ecosystems are rare. We report here 50 years of monitoring and experimentation in Yukon of a dominant rodent species in the North American boreal forest, the red-backed vole Clethrionomys rutilus. These voles breed in summer, weigh 20-25 g, and reach a maximum density of 20 to 25 per ha. Their populations have shown consistent 3-4-year cycles for the last 50 years with the only change being that peak densities averaged 8/ha until 2000 and 18/ha since that year. During the last 25 years, we have measured food resources, predator numbers, and winter weather, and for 1-year social interactions, to estimate their contribution to changes in the rate of summer increase and the rate of overwinter decline. All these potential limiting factors could contribute to changes in density, and we measured their relative contributions statistically with multiple regressions. The rate of winter decline in density was related to both food supply and winter severity. The rate of summer increase was related to summer berry crops and white spruce cone production. No measure of predator numbers was related to winter or summer changes in vole abundance. There was a large signal of climate change effects in these populations. There is no density dependence in summer population growth and only a weak one in winter population declines. None of our results provide a clear understanding of what generates 3-4-year cycles in these voles, and the major missing piece may be an understanding of social interactions at high density.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it