O-11 THE PUBLIC HEALTH POLICIES REDUCE THE LONG-TERM BURDEN OF ALCOHOL-ASSOCIATED LIVER DISEASE WORLDWIDE: DEVELOPMENT OF A PREPAREDNESS INDEX
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The long-term impact of alcohol-related public health policies (PHP) on the burden of liver disease is unclear. This study aimed to assess the association between alcohol-related PHP and alcohol-related health consequences; 2. To develop an instrument to quantify the establishment of alcohol-related PHP in each country. We performed an ecological multi-national study including 169 countries. We recorded socio-demographic data and the presence of alcohol-related PHP in each country from the WHO Global Information System of Alcohol and Health (GISAH) in 2010. Data on alcohol-related health consequences was collected from the Global Burden of Disease database (between 2010-2019). We classified the WHO categories into five domains to design an instrument with criteria for a low, moderate, and strong establishment of PHP. We estimated an incidence rate ratio (IRR) using multilevel generalized linear models with a Poisson family distribution. The models were adjusted by population size, age structure, and gross domestic product. We also estimated a preparedness index using multiple correspondence analysis. The table summarizes the final instrument. We included 169 countries; the median preparedness index was 54 [34.9-76.8]. The preparedness index was associated with lower alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) mortality (IRR:0.25, 95%CI: 0.06-1.09, p=0.064), cancer mortality (IRR:0.22, 95%CI: 0.05-0.97, p=0.046), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality (IRR:0.20, 95%CI: 0.04-0.95, p=0.043), and cardiovascular mortality (IRR:0.15, 95%CI: 0.04-0.61, p=0.008). There was also a trend to lower alcohol use disorder prevalence (IRR:0.25, 95%CI: 0.06-1.09, p=0.064). The highest linear associations were observed in the Americas and Africa, while Europe exhibits a nonlinear association. The preparedness index on alcohol policies is a valuable instrument to assess the establishment and strength of PHP. Those countries with a higher number of PHP had lower mortality due to ALD, cancer, HCC, and cardiovascular diseases. Our results strongly encourage the development and implementation of PHP on alcohol consumption worldwide.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.020 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".