Patient and ward related risk factors in a multi-ward nosocomial outbreak of COVID-19: Outbreak investigation and matched case–control study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Risk factors for nosocomial COVID-19 outbreaks continue to evolve. The aim of this study was to investigate a multi-ward nosocomial outbreak of COVID-19 between 1st September and 15th November 2020, occurring in a setting without vaccination for any healthcare workers or patients. METHODS: Outbreak report and retrospective, matched case-control study using incidence density sampling in three cardiac wards in an 1100-bed tertiary teaching hospital in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Patients were confirmed/probable COVID-19 cases and contemporaneous control patients without COVID-19. COVID-19 outbreak definitions were based on Public Health guidelines. Clinical and environmental specimens were tested by RT-PCR and as applicable quantitative viral cultures and whole genome sequencing were conducted. Controls were inpatients on the cardiac wards during the study period confirmed to be without COVID-19, matched to outbreak cases by time of symptom onset dates, age within ± 15 years and were admitted in hospital for at least 2 days. Demographics, Braden Score, baseline medications, laboratory measures, co-morbidities, and hospitalization characteristics were collected on cases and controls. Univariate and multivariate conditional logistical regression was used to identify independent risk factors for nosocomial COVID-19. RESULTS: The outbreak involved 42 healthcare workers and 39 patients. The strongest independent risk factor for nosocomial COVID-19 (IRR 3.21, 95% CI 1.47-7.02) was exposure in a multi-bedded room. Of 45 strains successfully sequenced, 44 (97.8%) were B.1.128 and differed from the most common circulating community lineages. SARS-CoV-2 positive cultures were detected in 56.7% (34/60) of clinical and environmental specimens. The multidisciplinary outbreak team observed eleven contributing events to transmission during the outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: Transmission routes of SARS-CoV-2 in hospital outbreaks are complex; however multi-bedded rooms play a significant role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".