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Record W4360608960 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2709173/v1

Financial Exploitation in Canada: A Predictive Model using ML and AI

2023· preprint· en· W4360608960 on OpenAlexaffabout
Kishinchand Poornima Wasdani, Mark Lokanan

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square · 2023
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicInsurance and Financial Risk Management
Canadian institutionsRoyal Roads University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsBusinessFinance

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract The story of financial victimization and abuse of the elderly, women, and migrants is not new to Canada. However, its implications were given serious legal and social consideration only a decade back when reports on financial exploitation were published by Vancity Credit Union as “The Invisible Crime” in 2014 and as “Suffering in Silence” in 2017. These research studies pointed out that only 3% of the elderly population in Canada were aware of their financial abuse but there were at least 36% of the population that were not aware of being defrauded. National Survey on the Mistreatment of Older Canadians by the University of Toronto in 2015 estimated that by 2030, this crime would target at least 70% of the elderly and vulnerable population of Canada. Hence was the need for a model that could predict financial fraud, prevent victimization, and was practice friendly. The review of literature pointed to a mix of personal, interpersonal, and institutional factors that increased the attractiveness of victims and the capacity of offenders. The present study uses machine learning and neural networks to develop a logistic regression model that could predict financial exploitation in Canada. Using the data from the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, a predictive model based on the three highest predictors of financial exploitation in Canada-age, income, and total net worth was developed. It is difficult to imagine regulators in Canada not using the findings from this study to inform policies regarding financial regulation and victims' protection. This study is also among the few studies that make a deep dive into the Canadian context and people making the prediction model available to policyholders and financial institutions for thwarting the attempts of defrauding the vulnerable sections of society in Canada notwithstanding the extension of the model to other economies.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.099
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.154
GPT teacher head0.339
Teacher spread0.185 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2023
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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