Tackling the infinite likelihood problem when fitting mixtures of shifted asymmetric Laplace distributions
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mixtures of shifted asymmetric Laplace distributions were introduced as a tool for model-based clustering that allowed for the direct parameterization of skewness in addition to location and scale. Following common practices, an expectation-maximization algorithm was developed to fit these mixtures. However, adaptations to account for the `infinite likelihood problem' led to fits that gave good classification performance at the expense of parameter recovery. In this paper, we propose a more valuable solution to this problem by developing a novel Bayesian parameter estimation scheme for mixtures of shifted asymmetric Laplace distributions. Through simulation studies, we show that the proposed parameter estimation scheme gives better parameter estimates compared to the expectation-maximization based scheme. In addition, we also show that the classification performance is as good, and in some cases better, than the expectation-maximization based scheme. The performance of both schemes are also assessed using well-known real data sets.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it