Multi‐Model Subseasonal Prediction Skill Assessment of Water Vapor Transport Associated With Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western U.S.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) forecasts of atmospheric rivers (ARs) are in high demand in the water supply management and flood control communities. This study focuses on a new metric, the accumulated water vapor transport associated with ARs, which is closely related to the winter precipitation over the western U.S., and provides a multi‐model S2S prediction skill assessment. The prediction skill is evaluated at lead time 1–4 weeks in four dynamical model hindcast data sets from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), and Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Three reanalysis data sets are used to evaluate the uncertainty of prediction skills related to the choice of references. The AR‐related water vapor transport is underestimated in ECMWF and ECCC over most of the investigated region, while its maximum has a southeastward shift in NCEP and GMAO at lead time 3–4 weeks. The root mean square error, anomaly correlation coefficient, and Brier skill score are calculated to quantify the prediction skill in both deterministic and probabilistic sense. At week‐3 lead time, the models have significant skill near the lower latitudes (<40°N) of the eastern North Pacific, extending northeastward to the California coastal area. Models have higher skills in forecasting no and strong AR cases than weak cases. The Madden–Julian Oscillation can modulate the prediction skill at week‐3 lead over central and Southern California, but with large uncertainties across models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".